The Federal Reserve seemed prime for a 25-bp rate hike for June, only to forego the idea once the disappointing jobs data came back for May, with the U.S. adding only 38,000 jobs. While some might argue that the Fed being transparent about its policy is a good thing, too often if one piece of data – albeit a major one – comes up sketchy at the last minute, they need to pull the plug and inevitably agitate the markets. I initially expected the next rate hike to come in December (until after the election), and the next hike will likely be in September if they’re happy with the data that comes forth following. The decision will fundamentally come down to improved GDP growth after the miserable showing in Q1, jobs and output growth, and, more secondarily, whether inflation is moving toward the Fed’s 2% target. I believe the Fed is targeting somewhere in the 3.00%-3.50% range for the federal funds rate (it’s current at 0.25%-0.50%), but at its current pace, it seems likely to take several years. If another recession pops up within the next couple years, it’s doubtful to get there at all anytime soon.