I'd say the odds of the UK leaving the EU are around 35%-40% at the moment, with the issue finally being resolved at a June 23 referendum. It's a complicated topic and is difficult to forecast, but UK GDP would receive a boost by exiting the European Union if it could manage to sufficiently deregulate its economy and strike a free-trade agreement with the EU. UK GDP would, however, fare worse if no free trade agenda could be worked out post-exit and the country falls into a protectionist regime. I think, on net, staying within the EU is Britain's best option, which is why I'll forecast a "stay."