The crude oil market has been stuck in the low-to-mid $50’s since early December, where it’s settled since bottoming around $26-$27 per barrel just over one year ago. The moderation in the current $50-$55 channel came after OPEC’s announcement of a production cut on November 30.It appears there’s the lack of any catalyst to move the price either way. Reuters reported two weeks ago that institutional investors were strongly entering on the long side, betting on a continuing recovery in prices.“Balance” in the oil markets seems to reside around $60-$70 in terms of a long-run average. Many are also betting on a relatively successful continuation of the OPEC supply cuts that appear to have around 90% compliance.If inventories decline enough this could ensure a future price boost. Supply should lessen in the latter half of the year. If I had to guess year-end price, I’d estimate around $60 per barrel. In the interim, the general bias seems to be up on a “flow of funds” basis, with crowded long-side exposure.Agree – Oil to remain between $50-$55 over the next two weeksDisagree – Oil to fall outside this range (below $50 or above $55) over the next two weeks